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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 22 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jul 2022	122	024
23 Jul 2022	115	025
24 Jul 2022	120	010

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare observed was an C6.1-class flare, peaking at 21 July 23:46 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3055, which is currently off the visible solar disk. Regions have been mostly stable, with some activity registered in NOAA AR 3063, 3064 and newly numbered 3065. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, where C-class flares are expected and there is a chance of M-class flares.

No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has been was above the 1000 pfu threshold for the time period 21 July 17:25-17:50UT over the past 24 hours. It is expected cross the threshold over the next 24 hours, until the expect CME arrival early 23 July. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected be about moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters indicate influences from the expected high speed stream (HSS) from the two negative polarity coronal holes. Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field reached the value of 19 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated from -17nT to 19 nT . The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly on the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed increased up to 560 km/s. Over the next 24 hours, HSS influences are expected to continue, while from early 23 July they are expected to be combined with the effects of the arrival of the CME on 21 July.

Over the past 24 hours, minor storm conditions were registered (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 5), due to the arrival of the HSS from the two negative polarity coronal holes. Over the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions can be expected, while moderate storm conditions early 23 July.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	134
10cm solar flux	122
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	029
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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