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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jul 2022	102	007
26 Jul 2022	100	007
27 Jul 2022	100	007

Bulletin

Only a single C flare was recorded, peaking at C1.4 magnitude at 8:33UTC from a region on the north-east limb. The several pre-existing active regions mostly seemed to be stable or in decay. Only NOAA active region 3062 (Catania group 94) seemed to develop a leading spot and became bipolar. Another small bipolar group formed in the south-eastern hemisphere (Catania group 96) as well as some minor unipolar regions in the north-east (Catania groups 97 and 98). More important seems to be the region that is about to rotate onto the disc in the north east and which was responsible for the C flare this morning. Overall, C flaring is to be expected in the next 24 hours.

The filament eruption towards the south-west reported yesterday (appearing in coronagraph data on top of the backsided halo CME), was determined to be front sided but too far off the Sun-Earth line to reach Earth. Some more filament eruptions occurred on the south east of the disc in the past 24 hours. The most significant originated just south of NOAA active region 3062 and erupted around 18:38UTC with a clear EUV on disc dimming observed in SDO AIA 193 images. The resulting CME as observed in coronagraph images (from 18:48UTC in LASCO C2 images) appears rather narrow and to the south and east off the Sun-Earth line. This suggests that it will not be affecting Earth, but further analysis will carried out for this event. No other Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, but could possibly cross it today in the wake of the high speed stream conditions. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and rising. It is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next days.

Solar wind conditions have returned to slow Solar wind conditions over the period, with Solar wind speed evolving from 550 km/s to under 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was at a background 5nT magnitude with insignificant north-south orientation and connection to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Slow Solar wind conditions are expected over the next days.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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