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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 29 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Jul 2022	094	029
30 Jul 2022	095	031
31 Jul 2022	095	010

Bulletin

Only a single C flare was observed. The C4.2 flare peaked at 4:33UTC from the new bipolar region (NOAA active region 3068) after some flux emergence in its intermediate region. The region was otherwise quiet, and all other active regions on disc were showing signs of decay, with NOAA active regions 3066 and 3067 loosing their spots. Some new spot formation in the north-west quadrant was observed but it remains to be confirmed that it persists. Flaring at C level is not very likely but remains quite possible over the next days.

At least the most southern part of the filament located south of NOAA active region 3062 has erupted starting around 22UTC. However, no associated CMEs could be identified in coronagraph data. No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly touched the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels following a slow declining trend.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the equator that crossed the central meridian on July 26 is expected to influence Solar wind from today onwards.

Slow Solar wind conditions were observed. Solar wind speed decreased steadily from around 400km/s to around 325km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of between 5-8nT with a variable north-south component. The interplanetary magnetic field is connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). We are expecting today a switch into the positive sector (field away from the Sun), followed by an increase in Solar wind speed associated to the high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Dourbes 1-3) with an isolated active period observed by local K Dourbes. Active conditions are expected over the next days associated to the interaction region and high speed stream from the isolated coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 26. Isolated minor geomagnetic storm episodes can not be excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 047, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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