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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Aug 01 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Aug 2022	097	016
02 Aug 2022	096	010
03 Aug 2022	096	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with an isolated C9.3-class flare (start time 22:41 UTC, peak time 23:09 UTC, end time 23:44 UTC) from behind the north-east limb on July 31st. There are three simple sunspots on the visible solar disc with NOAA 3068 (beta) being the largest one. NOAA 3062 (alpha) has remained simple and inactive and is approaching the west limb. A simple newly numbered region NOAA 3069 (alpha) appears small and insignificant. The flaring activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with increasing chances for further C-class flaring and a minor chance for M-class flaring from the active region behind the east limb.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been primarily at background levels and briefly crossed the1000 pfu threshold around 15:40 UTC on July 31st. Over the next 24 hours the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain primarily at background levels with possible short crossings of the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered some enhancements, possibly related to an arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) from the high-latitude extension of the negative polarity southern polar coronal hole. The solar wind velocity increased from around 330 km/s to almost 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has reached values of 15 nT with a minimum Bz component reaching -9 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period between 15 and 18 UTC on July 31st. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours in response to the ongoing HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 31 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	034 - Based on 32 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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