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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Aug 14 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Aug 2022	126	007
15 Aug 2022	127	007
16 Aug 2022	124	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. Several C-flares occurred in the past 24 hours, the majority of which originated from NOAA active regions 3079 and 3081. The strongest flare was a C6.7 flare from NOAA AR 3079 peaking at 13:00 UTC. NOAA ARs 3080 and 3074 have decayed into plage regions. NOAA AR 3081 has developed rapidly in the north-west of the solar disk, the remaining active regions are relatively simple and stable. Solar flaring activity is expected to be a low levels, with C-class flaring very likely and a chance for M-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above or around the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels with a slow decreasing trend.

The Earth continues to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream. The solar wind speed decreased from around 540 to 470 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field strength varied around 5nT. The magnetic field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours solar wind speed is expected to continue the decreasing trend and slowly return towards slow solar wind conditions/

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes and NOAA Kp 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 123, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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