Перегляд архіву вівторок, 13 вересня 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Sep 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Sep 2022	151	003
14 Sep 2022	150	004
15 Sep 2022	150	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low to moderate levels with multiple C-class flares and an impulsive M1.7-class flare with start time 23:37 UTC, end time 23:48 UTC and peak time 23:44 UTC on Sept 12th. The low M-class flare and few low to mid-level C-class flares were produced by the largest active region, NOAA 3098, which remains classified as magnetic type beta-gamma. NOAA 3101 has showed further development evolving into magnetic type beta-gamma and has produced plenty of low level activity with low to high C-class flaring. This region currently resides at the west limb and is expected to rotate behind it by the end of tomorrow. A returning active region, currently unnumbered, has now rotated onto the south-east limb, but appears simple and has remained inactive. The remaining active regions are magnetically simple and have remained stable or exhibited some decay. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with highly probable C-class flares and chances for more isolated M-class flaring in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slowly returned towards background levels in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below minor storm warning levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over long periods of time and is expected to cross the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) showed further decline towards background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity smoothly declined from 388 km/s towards 307 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6 nT and a minimum Bz-component of -3 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be at slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours. A negative polarity coronal hole has now reached the central meridian. The high speed stream emanating from this coronal hole could reach Earth early on Sept 16th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist over the next 24 hours with possible isolated unsettled periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 108, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	157
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	140 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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