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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Sep 16 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Sep 2022	140	009
17 Sep 2022	136	018
18 Sep 2022	132	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels with background C-class flaring and an impulsive M7.9-class flare, start time 09:44 UTC, end time 09:56 UTC, peak time 09:49 UTC on Sept 16th, from NOAA AR 3098 currently located at the west limb. Active region NOAA 3098 (beta-gamma) remains the largest and most complex active region and was responsible for most of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Active regions NOAA 3100 (beta) exhibited slight growth, but remained inactive. NOAA 3102 (beta) developed slightly and produced several low C-class flares. A newly emerged active region close to the central meridian, NOAA 3103 (beta), produced isolated C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels with chances for more isolated M-class flaring in the next 24 hours.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed to leave the Sun around 23:12 UTC on Sept 15th following minor flaring activity and a filament eruption in the south-west hemisphere several hours earlier that evening. While the bulk of the CME appears to travel westward, the flank could have an Earth- directed component. Further analysis of this eruption will be carried out as STEREO A data arrives. The CME which lifted off the Sun around 09 UTC on Sept 15th is estimated to miss the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be enhanced following the ICME arrival, but remained below minor storm levels in the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced and could reach minor storm levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was well below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have recovered from the influence of a mild ICME arrival. The solar wind velocity smoothly varied in the range of 310 and 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 14 nT to around 5 nT at the time of writing. The Bz-component was predominantly positive with a minimum value of -2.9 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to register possible enhancements due to an expected high speed stream arrival today.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible active periods and minor chances for isolated minor storms with the expected HSS arrival.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	134
10cm solar flux	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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