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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Sep 18 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Sep 2022	132	011
19 Sep 2022	132	016
20 Sep 2022	132	012

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with background C-class flaring and three low M-class flares from behind the west limb from ex-region NOAA 3098. The M-class flaring was recorded on Sept 17th with an M1.1-class, start time 12:42 UTC, end time 13:21 UTC, peak time 13:19 UTC, an M1.9-class, start time 13:21 UTC, end time 13:53 UTC, peak time 13:39 UTC and an M2.6-class, start time 20:32 UTC, end time 20:52 UTC, peak time 20:41 UTC. NOAA AR 3102 (beta) underwent significant growth and produced several low C-class flares. NOAA AR 3100 (beta) developed multiple trailing spots, but produced only a single low C-class flare. Region NOAA 3103 (beta) shrunk and remained inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low background levels with chances for isolated M-class flaring over the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained enhanced but below minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below the radiation storm thresholds over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was well below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) recorded slightly elevated magnetic field, temperature and velocity. Those could be a signature of a not prominent high speed stream from mid latitude negative polarity coronal holes which was expected to arrive to Earth on Sept 16th, but its signatures could have been mixed with the previous ICME arrival. The solar wind speed increased to 480 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 12.3 nT with a minimum Bz-component -9.2 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the possible geo-effective coronal hole. The solar wind parameters are expected to register more enhancements due to a moderate high speed stream in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	086 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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