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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 02 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Oct 2022	153	017
03 Oct 2022	156	012
04 Oct 2022	159	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at high levels. The largest flares observed were an M5.8 and an M8.7 flare, peaking on October 1 at 20:10 UT and October 2 at 02:21UT, respectively. Both flares were associated with Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) which showed rapid flux emergence over the past day. C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3111, NOAA AR 3112, NOAA AR 3113. NOAA AR 3112, near the north east limb, remains the largest and most complex region on disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

A C3.5 flare from NOAA AR 3113, was also associated with a filament eruption that began to lift off around 11:59 UT October 01, seen in SDO/AIA 304. An associated partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen from 12:40 UT in LASCO/C2, which is predicted to impact Earth early on October 4. The two M-class flares reported also had associated CMEs, which appear to be narrow and not Earth directed but further coronagraph data is awaited.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm warning threshold. Due to the increased flaring activity there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth was under the continued influence of a high speed stream, with solar wind values between 450 and 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around 6 nT at the start of the period. A small shock- like feature was observed at 15:04 on October 01, where the magnetic field increased to 10nT. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on October 02 due to the ongoing influence of the high speed stream, before gradually beginning to wane on October 03.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-3, local K-Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be at unsettled conditions with active conditions possible for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 129, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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