Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 14 жовтня 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Oct 2022	130	026
15 Oct 2022	128	014
16 Oct 2022	126	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions on the visible disc. One M-class flare was detected from NOAA AR 3112 as it rotates over the western limb, it was an M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UT. More M-class flares can be expected for the next 24 hours.

A wide (angular width around 100 degrees), slow and faint CME was seen by LASCO-C2 first at 07:48 UT on 13 October. This CME originated in a filament eruption in the southern hemisphere (about 30 degrees south of the equator), with the bulk of the material towards the south. Since the source region is close to the central meridian, an Earth arrival is possible on 17 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to decrease to normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth have been dominated in recent hours by the expected arrival of the CME from 10 October. The magnetic field intensity have reached 16 nT with Bz down to -13 nT. The solar wind speed is about 370 km/s. The Earth will continue to see the effects of this ICME for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels due to the ICME (Kp up to 4 and K_Dourbes up to 3). Active to minor storm conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	078 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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