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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 08 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Nov 2022	135	014
09 Nov 2022	135	008
10 Nov 2022	135	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours returned to low levels. The largest flare was a long duration C3.1-class flare peaking at 15:15 UTC on Nov 07 and produced by Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141). The other sunspot groups on the solar surface visible from Earth didn’t show any flaring activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be low levels with possible isolated M-class flare produced by Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA-AR 3141).

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate to high levels and is expected to return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly enhanced due to the passage of a slow-speed solar wind structure that could not be clearly connected to a specific solar source event observed last week. The solar wind speed was about 400 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field reached up to 15.5 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component ranged between -15.2 nT and 9.9 nT. Currently, the solar wind parameters have turned to nominal level with the total interplanetary magnetic field below 10.0 nT, the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, above -6 nT, and the wind speed below 400 km/s. The high-speed streams from a small and narrow positive polarity coronal hole may arrive today and enhanced the solar wind conditions near Earth.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active (K-Belgium, Kp-NOAA ranged between 2 and 4) due to the enhanced solar wind conditions and the long duration of negative southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible short periods of active geomagnetic conditions are expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from a small and narrow positive polarity coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	110
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	028
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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