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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 13 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Nov 2022	138	004
14 Nov 2022	138	007
15 Nov 2022	138	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C6.5-class flare, produced by the complex bipolar sunspot region Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141) at 18:04 UTC on November 12. Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141) produced several other smaller and short duration C-class flares. The other complex bipolar sunspot, Catania Sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 3140) also produced two small C-class flares. The other sunspot groups on the solar surface visible from Earth didn’t show any significant flaring activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain low to moderate levels with C-class flares and a probability of M-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated reflecting the influence of the high-speed streams from a small and narrow equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity). The solar wind speed increased from 432 km/s to 504 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field returned to values below 7.5 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bz component, ranged between -5.1 nT and 6.6 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the next days.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettle (K-Belgium, Kp-NOAA ranged between 0 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible short periods of unsettle geomagnetic conditions are expected in response to the influence of the high-speed streams from the coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	079 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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