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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Dec 15 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Dec 2022	168	004
16 Dec 2022	168	004
17 Dec 2022	168	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours, the Sun’s flaring activity has increased significantly as two of the largest sunspots groups (NOAA AR 3163 and NOAA AR 3165), situated on the visible solar disk, became more magnetically complex (presently having beta-gamma configuration). Fourteen M-class flares and a wide range of C-class flares were observed. So far most of the flaring activity has come from NOAA AR 3165, from which also all of the M-class flares originated. The strongest M6.3-class flare peaked at 14:42UTC on Dec 14. Some of the flares were associated with Type II and Type IV radio emission indicating a shock wave and a possible coronal mass ejection. None of the observed coronal mass ejections are Earth-directed. Because of the increase in magnetic complexity of the sunspot groups, we expect the flaring activity over the next 24 hours to remain at moderate levels with M-class flares expected and a slight chance for an X-class flare. The high solar activity from NOAA 3165, which is still well-connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event.

During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm threshold. Due to the increased flaring activity there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Earth is still inside the slow solar wind, with solar wind speeds ranging from about 320 to 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around 8nT. We expect slow solar wind conditions for the next 24 hours. The large coronal hole of negative polarity, elongated in longitude and situated nearby the southern polar coronal hole, has crossed the central meridian on Dec 14 and is transiting the Western hemisphere. The solar wind originating from this coronal hole is expected to arrive at Earth from late on Dec 17 onwards.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet and we expect such a geomagnetic conditions to persist in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 146, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	153 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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