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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 07 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Jan 2023	172	002
08 Jan 2023	174	003
09 Jan 2023	175	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3182 produced an M1.6 flare, peaking at 00:52 UTC January 07 as well as multiple C-class flares. Further C-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3183 including a C5 and C6 flare at 20:27 and 18:53 UTC on January 06, respectively. NOAA AR 3182 and 3181 exhibited further sunspot growth. NOAA AR 3180 and 3177 decayed slightly. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares, M flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next days.

The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field gradually decreased, with values between 3 and 11 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -7 to 9 nT). The solar wind speed values gradually ranged between 400 and 520 km/s. January 07-08 we expect a gradual return to slow solar wind regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp =3 and local K-Dourbes =2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 134, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	135 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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