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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 13 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jan 2023	207	006
14 Jan 2023	195	004
15 Jan 2023	195	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with four low M-class flares. The strongest detection was an M4.0-class flare, peak time 10:15 UTC on Jan 13th, produced by NOAA AR 3181 (beta- gamma), which is currently rotating onto the west limb. NOAA AR 3184 (beta) has significantly decayed, reducing its complexity, and was quiet. NOAA AR 3182 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3186 (beta-gamma) are currently the largest and most active regions on the visible solar disc. They have produced several mid to high C-class flares, as well as low M-class flaring. NOAA AR 3185 (beta) remained quiet, together with the newly numbered region NOAA 3188 (beta). A new region has rotated from behind the south-east limb, but remains inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and small chances for X-class flaring.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in LASCO C2 imagery around 23:48 UTC on Jan 12th following a C8.1-class flaring from behind the south-west limb. The eruption is back-sided and is not expected to affect Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced in the past 24 hours due to the partial halo CME from behind the south-west limb, but remained below radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be slightly enhanced with some possibility to exceed minor storm levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated. The solar wind velocity varied around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field peaked at 9.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -8.88 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to return towards ambient slow solar wind and remain so until a possible arrival of a glancing blow from a slow CME on Jan 16th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 182, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	177
10cm solar flux	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	179 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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