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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Feb 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Feb 2023	137	007
05 Feb 2023	137	007
06 Feb 2023	137	007

Bulletin

There are five active regions visible on the solar disc, all of them with simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares detected. The strongest one was a C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 2307, peaking at 16:30 UTC on 3 February. Further C class flaring is expected.

A wide CME was first seen at 10:36 UTC on 3 February by LASCO C2, with a speed of around 400 km/s, it may arrive to the Earth on 7 February.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity equatorial coronal crossed the central meridian yesterday, its associated high speed stream will arrive to the Earth in about 2 days.

In the last 24 hours we saw a period of relatively high magnetic field reaching 11 nT with Bz down to -6 nT, probably corresponding to a weak ICME, it ended at 18:00 UTC on 3 February. The solar wind speed at L1 is at 300 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT, with mostly negative polarity (oriented towards the Sun). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled both locally and at planetary levels (K_Dourbes and Kp up to 3). Similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 084, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	085
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	067 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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