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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Feb 19 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Feb 2023	168	015
20 Feb 2023	168	033
21 Feb 2023	166	019

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was C7.7 flare, with peak time 12:00 UT on February 18, associated with NOAA AR 3226, which was most active region over the period. This region also produced a C7.6 flare at 18:36 UTC on February 18 with associated Type II radio emission. NOAA AR 3229 and 3225 exhibited sunspot growth but were quiet. A new region rotated onto the disk over the south east limb and was numbered NOAA AR 3230, but is magnetically simple and quiet. The remaining regions on the solar disk are all relatively simple and have not produced any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for further X-class flares.

The C-class flaring from NOAA AR 3226 were associated with a number of eruptions to the south west, first seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 16:18 UT. These are being analysed but are initially determined not to be Earth directed. No new Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. There is a small chance of a proton event exceeding the 10pfu threshold, due to possible further high-level flares. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the high-speed stream. The solar wind speed decreased from 460 km/s to values around 350 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 5nT. Bz had a minimum value of -5nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect slow solar wind conditions on February 19, with a small possibility from an enhancement from a glancing blow from the CME from February 16. Similarly enhanced conditions are likely from the combination of the arrival of a CME glancing blow on February 20 (from the halo CME on February 17) and the arrival of a high- speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on February 17.

The geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours (local K-Bel 0-3 and NOAA Kp 1-3). Quiet conditions are expected for February 19 with active to minor (possibly major) storm conditions possible on February 20, due to the possible predicted CME and HSS influences.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 117, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	118 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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