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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Feb 28 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Feb 2023	161	022
01 Mar 2023	161	011
02 Mar 2023	161	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low levels of the past 24 hours. Several small C-class flares were observed. NOAA active region 3234 continues to be the most complex region on disc and has now a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta; however, it did not show any significant flaring activity. Beside NOAA active region 3236 that has shown some goring, the other regions were stable or in decay. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at low levels with C-class flares, and low possibility of M-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux has returned below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the background levels over the next day before. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to become more elevated over the next days due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind environment near Earth was strongly enhanced with fast speed up to 880 km/s. It is believed to be the result of a combination of the expected fast wind from the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central meridian and the expected arrival of the coronal mass ejection observed in SOHO/LASCO on February 25 with the M6.3-class flare. Solar wind speed has meanwhile slowly decreased and reached the current value of 650 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between 5 nT and 15 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, has been mostly southward reaching to -10 nT in the beginning of the 24-hour period. The solar wind condition is expected to remain elevated for the next 24 hours.

A major geomagnetic storm was ongoing since February 27, 06:00 UTC. The Kp- NOAA index remained continuously between 6 and 7. The K-Belgium index also reached values of 5. This geomagnetic storm is due to the arrival of the fast solar wind (with speed up to 880 km/s) that started to increase on February 26, at 21:00 UTC. Currently the geomagnetic conditions as returned to unsettled condition, however future episodes of active condition cannot be excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 109, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	100
AK Wingst	068
Estimated Ap	072
Estimated international sunspot number	142 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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