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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 06 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Mar 2023	181	013
07 Mar 2023	178	011
08 Mar 2023	170	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was high in the past 24 hours with a five M-class flares detected and several C-class flares. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3242 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 5) produced two M1 flares yesterday at 16:41 UT and 17:01 UT, NOAA AR 3243 (magnetic type Beta), produced two M5 flares yesterday at 21:36 UT and today at 02:28 UT, while NOAA AR 3234 (magnetic type beta-gamma-delta) an M1 flare at 09:12 UT today. NOAA AR 3238 (magnetic type Beta, Catania group 1), 3242, and 3243 have a fair chance of producing more M-class flares, while there is still a small chance for an isolated X-flare in the next 24 hours.

Several Coronal Mass Ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed CME were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to fluctuate around this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remain under the influence of the fast solar wind streams associated to the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that reached the central meridian on March 02. The SW speed ranged between 500 km/s and 630 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Btot) had values between 3 nT and 8 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 nT and 6 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth are expected to remain at the same level for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were moderate to active both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 2-4) over the last 24 hours. The are expected to remain at the same level both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 192, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	155 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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