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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Mar 2023	140	032
16 Mar 2023	138	023
17 Mar 2023	136	012

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity remained at low level over the past 24 hours with several low-level C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was a C1.2 flare, peaking at 22:26 UTC on March 14, associated with active region NOAA 3254 (beta class). This region produced the majority of the flaring activity. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3250 (beta class). The remaining regions on the solar disk were inactive. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

During last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated over the past 24 hours due to full halo backsided CME from March 13 and due to CME arrival at 03:39 on March 15. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has reached the maximum value of 22pfu at around 04:25UTC today. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced over the next days with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to become more elevated over the next days due to the enhanced solar wind conditions The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind environment near Earth was under the influence of the fast solar wind streams associated to the equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity that began to cross the central meridian on March 11. On March 15, around 03:39UTC a shock was observed with solar wind speed jumping from 410 km/s to 550 km/s and the total interplanetary magnetic field jumping from 8 nT to 24 nT. The shock might be associated to the CME that left the Sun on 19:00UTC, March 12. Solar wind speed has meanwhile slowly decreased and reached the current value of 500 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic also decreased to the values around 10 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to influence of HSS from positive polarity equatorial coronal hole and possible glancing blow from CME that left the Sun on 10:53UTC March 13.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active both globally and locally (K-Bel=2-4 NOAA-Kp=2-4) with isolated moderate storm period globally (NOAA- Kp = 6) and minor storm period locally (K Belgium reaching 5) at around 03:00 UTC on March 15. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach minor storm level in the next days, with a chance of isolated major storm periods during next days due to influence of the HSS and possible glancing blow from the CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 103, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	122
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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