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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Mar 2023	135	007
18 Mar 2023	137	007
19 Mar 2023	139	005

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity remained at low level over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The majority of the flares originated from the ARs behind the east limb, which are rotating onto the solar disk, and from the ARs behind the west limb. The largest flares were a C6.4 flares, peaking at 06:26 UTC on March 17 and at 06:52 UTC on March 17, associated with the ARs behind the east limb (S19E83). The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A filament eruption in the southwestern quadrant was observed on March 17 around 02:38UTC. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis, but it seems unlikely that the event is Earth-directed. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at almost nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the high-speed stream. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 520 km/s to 440 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained about 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours.

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-2 and Local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet to unsettled levels during next hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	110
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	094 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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