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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 22 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Mar 2023	150	018
23 Mar 2023	150	028
24 Mar 2023	150	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours. Multiple low C-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3257 (beta-delta), NOAA AR 3259 (beta), NOAA AR 3260 (beta) and the newly numbered active region NOAA 3261 (beta). A new unnumbered active region is rotating from the southeast limb and might contribute to the C-class flaring activity over the next 24h. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24 hours with small chances for isolated M-class flaring.

A C1.7-class flare from NOAA AR 3258 on March 21st, peak time 10:29 UTC, has resulted in a coronal mass ejection (CME) lift off well visible in the AIA images. The CME has produced a strong on-disc dimming and a coronal wave across the disc starting from the north-east quadrant near the central meridian and ending with a consequent prominence eruption on the west limb. While the bulk of the CME appears to be off the Sun-Earth line a glancing blow from it cannot be excluded with possible arrival time at the end of March 24th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the limited available coronagraph imagery.

Over the past 24 hours the 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained at slightly elevated levels, well below minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered the expected arrival of a mild high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 441 to 566 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has a maximum value of 9.9 nT with a minimum Bz of -7.3 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to remain enhanced due to the continuation of this mild high speed stream arrival. A possible mild glancing blow from a CME which lifted off the solar surface on March 20th might arrive at Earth on March 23rd. A faster high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on March 20th is also expected to arrive at Earth on March 23rd with probable CIR precursor. A glancing blow from the CME before UTC noon on March 21st might arrive mixed within the faster high speed stream in the late evening of March 24th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with possible isolated minor storms with the continuing influence of the ongoing high speed stream arrival and any potential glancing blow impact tomorrow.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 100, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	112
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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