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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Mar 2023	130	019
01 Apr 2023	134	015
02 Apr 2023	134	004

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity has been at low levels over the past 24 hours with 9 numbered active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk. A total of 11 low C-class flares were reported. The flaring activity originated from different active regions, including Catania group 24 (NOAA AR 3256), Catania group 31 (NOAA AR 3262), Catania group 33 (NOAA AR 3263) and Catania group 34 (NOAA AR 3265). The strongest flare reported was a GOES M4.4 class flare with peak time at 09:10 UT on March 31. The flare originated from Catania group 30 (NOAA AR 3260), which is rotating across the West solar limb. As all active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta), we expect the flaring activity to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. The C-class flares are expected and isolated M-class flares are possible but not very probable.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. A small increase has been detected, starting from about 08:50UT until 18:00UT on March 30. The increase was due to the GOES M5.4 class flare with peak time at 07:37 UT on March 30. If a high energy flare originating from the active regions situated close to the West solar limb occurs during the next 24 hours, it is possible that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold. As a result of the the high speed stream presently impacting Earth, we expect the threshold to be crossed over the next 2 days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed has been continuously increasing, starting with values of about 480 km/s and is now up to values of about 600 km/s. This wind increase is due to the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the negative polarity, equatorial coronal hole, that fully crossed the central meridian on March 29. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 4-7 nT during the last 24 hours. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly southwards. The solar wind speed near Earth is expected to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days. Two small, negative polarity coronal holes have been observed at the centre of the solar disk (latitudinal extend of N20-40 and S10-20, respectively). We do not expect a strong impact of the solar wind originating from these coronal holes.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled, reaching minor storm conditions for a short amount of time (around midnight and early morning today). K and Kp indices between 2 and 5 and between 3 and 5- have been reported in the local station at Dourbes and NOAA, respectively. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay elevated with possible active conditions over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	131
10cm solar flux	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	022
Estimated Ap	021
Estimated international sunspot number	109 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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