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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 02 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 May 2023	150	009
03 May 2023	150	007
04 May 2023	150	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active region 3288 remains the most magnetically complex region on the solar surface. It is now located near the West limb and it produced the largest flare, which is a M7.1-class flare peaking at 13:09 UTC on the May 02. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Few coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified. In particular, a partial-halo CME was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 04:48 UTC on May 02. However no on-disc signature of this CME was found, therefore we believe that this CME was directed to the backside of the sun.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, unless a particle event occurs associated with an X-class flare. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold due to the enhanced solar wind condition and is expected to remain at that level over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remind at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Earth remains under weak influence of the solar wind streams associated to the negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed remained elevated and ranged between 474 km/s and 550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values below 5.7 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -5.2 nT and 5.5 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain elevated for the next 1-2 days. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain stable for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some periods of unsettle conditions, and one period of active condition (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 4). For the next 24 hours, they are expected to remain mainly quiet with some periods of unsettle conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 01 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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