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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 16 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 May 2023	133	008
17 May 2023	135	009
18 May 2023	135	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C2.0 flare, peaking at 09:54 UTC on May 16, associated with ARs behind the east limb (S23E89). NOAA AR 3305 became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class), but produced only low C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA ARs 3304 (beta class) and 3306 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Coronal holes:

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected the waning influence of the ICME. The solar wind speed values were between 440 km/s and 510 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours with a low probability for further minor enhancements, due to a small chance for glancing blow arrival related to CME on May 12.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and Local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet to unsettled levels during next days with a small chance for active periods due to low probability of minor glancing blow arrival.

Proton flux levels

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 15 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	106 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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