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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jun 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jun 2023	172	006
22 Jun 2023	169	004
23 Jun 2023	165	005

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours, with one X1 and two M1 flares detected over the last 24 hours. The X1 flare was emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3341 (magnetic type Beta-gamma, Catania group 40) yesterday 17:09 UT. The two M1 flares were produced yesterday 15:48 UT and 16:33 UT by NOAA AR 3342 (magnetic type Beta-gamma, Catania group 25). Most of the numerous C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3342 during the past 24 hours. M-class flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours, although there is a small chance for an isolated X-class flare from NOAA AR 3341.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was automatically detected by CACTUS as launched yesterday 17:24 UT. It was caused by the X1 flare emitted from NOAA active region 3341, located at the west solar limb. Due to the location of its source, only a glancing blow is expected to become geo-effective in the second half of 23 June. Two other CME, launched yesterday at 04:48 UT and 12:00 UT are considered to be back- sided.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed ranged between 400 and 480 km/s in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 4 and 8 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are likely to remain the same for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 2- to 3- and K BEL 2 to 3) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to drop to quiet levels both globally and locally for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold yesterday between 12:40 and 21:20 UT. It has remained below this level since and it is expected to increase again during the next 24 hours, repeating yesterday's pattern. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to drop to nominal levels at some point in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 217, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	205 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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