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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 02 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jul 2023	169	007
03 Jul 2023	169	011
04 Jul 2023	169	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderated levels over the last 24 hours with several C-class flares and two M-class flares. The M1.1 and M2.1-class flares were produced by the new bipolar NOAA Active Region AR-3359 at 22:23 UTC on July 01, and at 02:35 UTC on July 02. NOAA Active Region AR-3354, which is the most complex region on the disc (Beta-gamma-delta) continued to produce several C-class flares. The other complex active regions have also produced several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low to moderated levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A small equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) has transited the central meridian on July 01. The high-speed teams associated to this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind condition near Earth in the next days.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind parameters showed a slow solar wind regime. The wind speed was between 424 km/s to 500 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) also was below 6.5 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -4.5 nT and 3.6 nT being manly positive. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was positive, directed outward of the Sun. The solar wind regime is expected to remain in this slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours. Then mild enhancement of the solar wind conditions associated with the small equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is expected later on the next day.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp=4 and K_BE=4) due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated to the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24, and the negative value of the southward component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period. It is expected to remain close to the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 143, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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