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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 13 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jul 2023	194	014
14 Jul 2023	194	021
15 Jul 2023	190	024

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at low to border line moderate levels in the past 24 hours with multiple high C-class flaring mostly from NOAA AR 3372 (beta-gamma), which has further rotated from near the north-east limb becoming the second largest active region on visible solar disc. The strongest activity produced by this region was an impulsive C9.4-flare with start time 05:05 UTC, peak time 05:21 UTC and end time 05:28 UTC on July 13th. The remaining notable flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3361 (beta-gamma), which is now approaching the west limb. NOAA AR 3363 (beta-gamma-delta) is currently the largest and most complex active region on the visible solar disc. Yet is has remained silent. NOAA AR 3367 (beta-gamma) exhibited slight decay and remained quiet. The remaining active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with probable isolated M-class flaring and remaining chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

A faint and relatively slow westward partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 22:12 UTC on July 12th. The CME does not have any clear on-disc signatures and is deemed to be bask-sided. No new Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the arrival of solar wind transient around 19:30 UTC on July 12th, possibly as an early precursor of the expected glancing blow ICME arrival from the July partial halo 10th CME. The solar wind velocity was steady around 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field showed enhancements and continues to increase, currently at 9.5 nT. The north- south Bz component was predominantly positive with a minimum value of -5.7 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be elevated due to the possible glancing blow ICME arrival and an expected high speed stream arrival over the coming 24h.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are expected for the next 24h. Quiet conditions to minor storm levels are expected for 14th and July 15th with some chances for isolated moderate storms.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending no strong eruptive on-disc solar activity. Chances for enhanced protons fluxes remain particularly due to possible flaring and CME activity driven by NOAA AR 3372 and NOAA AR 3363.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold, while the corresponding electron flux measured by GOES 18 briefly exceeded the 1000 pfu around 20:00 UTC on July 12th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 150, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	240
10cm solar flux	193
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	198 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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