Перегляд архіву понеділок, 31 липня 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 31 1314 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jul 2023	170	007
01 Aug 2023	168	028
02 Aug 2023	166	023

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with one M1 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3390 (magnetic type Beta) which peaked at 08:42 UTC today. Several C-class flares ranging from C1 to C6 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C6 by NOAA AR 3390 (magnetic type Beta). For the next 24 hours we are expecting few C-class flares and M-class flare from NOAA AR 3390. There are very likely a small chance of an X-flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity coronal hole has crossed central meridian, and it is expected to have an impact on Earth environment on 3 Aug.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind with velocity ranging from about 400 to 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 4 nT. We expect to see increase in the solar wind velocity once the expected CMEs arrive at Earth.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3) and we expect to see active condition or minor storm conditions when the expected CMEs arrive at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux dropped below the 10 pfu threshold level yesterday at 16:30 UTC. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours, and it is expected to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 180, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	182 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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