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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Aug 2023	160	018
05 Aug 2023	159	024
06 Aug 2023	159	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with one M2.0 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 which peaked at 04:24 UTC today. During the flare, the source region (AR 3386) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C8 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C8-class flare was produced NOAA Active Region (AR) 3380. For the next 24 hours, we are expecting several C-class flares and one or more M-class flare mainly from NOAA ARs 3386, 3394, and 3380. There is a small chance of an X-flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Among the observed CMEs, one CME was observed at 02:48 UTC (as detected by Cactus tool) today. It has its main component in the NW direction with a projected speed of 597 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool). It is associated with the M2.0 flare from NOAA AR 3386 (peaked at 04:24 UTC today) and the filament eruption below the same AR region. But, no Earth- directed components were identified.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, ranging from 320 km/s to 490 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) is fluctuating between -8 and 11 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field is slightly disturbed with values ranging from 6 nT to 16 nT. Enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected, if high speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 or the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Aug 02, arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). We expect to see active to minor storm conditions if the high speed stream from the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Aug 01 or the coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Aug 02, arrives at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to stay below the threshold level for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 131, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	173
10cm solar flux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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