Випущено: 2023 Oct 30 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
30 Oct 2023 | 133 | 019 |
31 Oct 2023 | 135 | 014 |
01 Nov 2023 | 135 | 005 |
Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring. The strongest activity was an impulsive C7.9 flare, peak time at 13:09 UTC on Oct 29th, produced by active region NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma), which is the most complex region on the visible solar disc and was solely responsible for the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3474 has decayed into plage and NOAA AR 3475 decreased its magnetic complexity to type alpha. Both regions are approaching the west limb. NOAA AR 3472 (beta) and NOAA AR 3473 (beta) have remained silent. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.
Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the ongoing influence of a high speed stream from a positive polarity corona hole. The solar wind velocity reached a maximum of 592 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly perturbed with maximum value of 7.2 nT and a minimum Bz of -6.1 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal hole. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over throughout the next 24h and slowly return to background slow solar wind conditions by Nov 1st.
The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Oct 30th and Oct 31st with chances for isolated minor storms. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for Nov 1st as the influence of the ongoing high speed stream wanes.
Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.
The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to increase to moderate levels in the next 24 hours and remain at moderate levels for the upcoming days.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 078, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 135 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 037 |
AK Wingst | 028 |
Estimated Ap | 030 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 062 - Based on 16 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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