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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Nov 03 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Nov 2023	158	003
04 Nov 2023	155	006
05 Nov 2023	155	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels with a single low M-class flaring from the newly numbered active region at the east limb, which has now rotated onto the visible disc (currently seen as magnetic type beta) and exhibits low levels of flaring activity. A few other unnumbered active regions are visible near the east limb and could contribute to the low levels of activity in the next days. The remaining C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3473 (alpha), which has shown signs of decay, and by NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma), which remains the largest and most complex active region on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3477 (beta) has exhibited some growth, but remained inactive. The new region in the north quadrant close to the central meridian is now numbered as NOAA AR 3479 (beta). It has not shown any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with likely C-class flaring and 50% chances for isolated M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

The north-east partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO/C2 data starting at 03:24 UTC on Nov 2nd is estimated to have a small chance of a weak glancing arrival on Nov 07th with very low impact on Earth. A large filament in the north-west quadrant erupted around 05:00 UTC on Nov 3rd and resulted in a partial halo CME first seen in the LASCO/C2 images around 05:36 UTC. A substantial Earth- directed component of this event is highly likely. We are awaiting for more data to analyse the expected arrival time and impact. Another wide south- east partial halo CME is visible in the coronagraph imagery around 02 UTC. Currently no on disc signatures are identified related to this event and it is deemed to be back-sided. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 373 km/s to 506 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was very weak with a maximum value below 4 nT and a minimum Bz of -3 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at background slow solar wind levels until a possible glancing blow arrival late on Nov 04th or early on Nov 05th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally mostly quiet with a single unsettled period over Belgium. Mostly quiet conditions are expected or Nov 3rd and Nov 4th and quiet to active conditions are expected on Nov 5th due to a possible glancing blow arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold until Nov 05th.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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