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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Nov 08 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Nov 2023	143	013
09 Nov 2023	146	016
10 Nov 2023	146	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.9-flare, with peak time 08:48 UTC on November 08, associated with newly numbered NOAA AR 3483 (beta-gamma) which has rapidly grown in size and magnetic complexity and most of the flaring activity came from this active region. There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3479 (beta) grew in size but is now approaching the west limb. NOAA AR 3477 (beta), NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3482 (beta) have remained relatively stable and were mostly quiet. NOAA AR 3481, NOAA AR 3478 and NOAA AR 3476 have turned into plage regions. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6.9-flare, with peak time 08:48 UTC on November 08, associated with newly numbered NOAA AR 3483 (beta-gamma) which has rapidly grown in size and magnetic complexity and most of the flaring activity came from this active region. There are currently 5 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3479 (beta) grew in size but is now approaching the west limb. NOAA AR 3477 (beta), NOAA AR 3480 (beta- gamma) and NOAA AR 3482 (beta) have remained relatively stable and were mostly quiet. NOAA AR 3481, NOAA AR 3478 and NOAA AR 3476 have turned into plage regions. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active conditions globally (Kp 4) between 03:00 and 06:00 UT on November 08 and were at unsettled levels locally (K Bel 3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 fluctuated around the 1000 pfu threshold between 16:00 UTC and 19:50 UTC on November 07. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threshold again in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	122
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	081 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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