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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Nov 14 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Nov 2023	134	016
15 Nov 2023	130	007
16 Nov 2023	124	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Flaring activity has been low, with only minor C-class flaring in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3477 (beta magnetic field configuration), peaking at 20:50 UTC on 13 November. NOAA AR 3483 has a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration while the other regions have simpler beta magnetic field configuration. Most of these active regions are rotation out of view over the west limb. More C-class flares are expected.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was under the influence of an ICME corresponding probably to an early arrival of the CME from 10 November. The ICME arrived around 16:20 UTC on 13 November with an interplanetary magnetic field reaching 15 nT (with positive Bz) and solar wind speed around 450 km/s. Similar disturbed conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA KP 3, K_Bel 3). Since Bz was positive within the ICME so far, its geomagnetic impact was minor. Similar conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours, with possible active and minor storm periods if Bz turns negative.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 060, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	080
10cm solar flux	134
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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