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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 01 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major (ISES: Severe) magstorm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Dec 2023	163	054
02 Dec 2023	165	057
03 Dec 2023	168	075

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the past 24 hours with an M1 flare from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3502 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 64) detected today at 04:19 UTC. Most of the C-class flaring activity was emitted from the nearby NOAA AR 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 65). More M-class flaring activity is likely and there is a small chance of an X-class flare from either of the pair of NOAA AR 3500 and 3502 in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 23:24 UTC. This appears to be an event associated with a flare at the south west solar limb and is not expected to be geo-effective. As more data become available the geo-effectiveness of this CME will be re-accessed.

Корональні діри

A large negative polarity coronal hole started crossing the central solar meridian today. It is expected to produce a strong high speed stream that will become geo-effective on Dec 4.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime until the arrival of a strong disturbance today at 08:50 UTC. This is most likely the arrival of one to three Corona Mass Ejections (CME) expected late yesterday or early today. The SW speed reached 560 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has peaked at 28 nT and its North- South magnetic component (Bz) dropped as low as -26 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remained strongly affected by the arrival of the CME for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 0+ to 2- and K BEL 0 to 2) until the arrival of the expected Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) today at 08:50 UTC. They have since reached globally the major storm level (NOAA Kp 7) for the 09:00-12:00 UTC period and locally the moderate storm level (K BEL 6) for the same period. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain up to major storm levels, both globally and locally, in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 133, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	168
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	148 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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