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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 25 1442 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Dec 2023	182	003
26 Dec 2023	180	004
27 Dec 2023	178	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring and two M-class flares. The strongest activity was an M2.6 flare with peak time 16:49 UTC on Dec 24th produced by active region NOAA AR 3529 (beta-gamma), which is the largest and most complex region on the visible solar disc. The second M-flaring, an M1.1-flare with peak time 19:51 UTC on Dec 24th was produced by an active region behind the south-east limb. Multiple C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3528 (beta) and by NOAA AR 3530 (beta- delta), which has shown some slight development. NOAA AR 3533 (beta) and NOAA AR 3526 (beta) both produced isolated low C-class flares. The remaining two active regions, NOAA 3521 (alpha) and NOAA 3531 (alpha), are simple and have either shown some decay or remained stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and chances for isolated more M-class flaring mostly from NOAA AR 3529 and from the region behind the south-east limb.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by the CACTUS automated detection tool with an estimated launch time around 14:00 UTC on Dec 24th. This is an erroneous automated detection, which consists of two separate CMEs, related to filament eruptions in the north- west and the south-east quadrant. The first CME lift off was visible in the LASCO C2 coronagraph images before UTC noon on Dec 24th and the second CME one was launched around 15:48 UTC on Dec 24th. Both CMEs have clear on-disc signatures and are accompanied by a coronal dimming. An initial analysis suggests a possible combined glancing blow arrival from these CMEs on Dec 27th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 398 km/s to 480 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated, reaching 7.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -6.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at slow solar wind levels throughout Dec 26th. Perturbed solar wind conditions are expected on Dec 27th and Dec 28th with anticipated combined glancing blow ICME arrivals.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout Dec 25th and Dec 26th. Active geomagnetic conditions are expected with possible isolated minor storm levels can be expected on Dec 27th - Dec 28th with anticipated combined glancing blow arrival from two CMEs.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	183
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	125 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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