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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 23 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Jan 2024	201	008
24 Jan 2024	210	005
25 Jan 2024	200	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high with eight M-class flares registering over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) produced the brightest flare, an M5 today at 03:31 UTC and an M1 yesterday at 19:24 UTC. NOAA AR 3562 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 36) produced most of the M-class flaring activity with an M3 flare yesterday at 21:21 UTC; three M2 at yesterday 19:47 UTC, yesterday 22:22 UTC, and today 08:11 UTC; and two M1 flares at yesterday 19:32 UTC and 21:43 UTC. Both AR are expected to produce M-class flares and there is a change of an isolated X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

A number of full and partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were automatically detected by CACTUS during the last 24 hours. The analysis of those events is still on-going, however preliminary results indicate that at least one CME is geo-effective and is expected to arrive at the second half of 25 Jan.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were affected by the arrival of a glancing blow associated with the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of the 20 January. Starting from yesterday 16:00 UTC, the SW speed increased to a maximum of 500 km/s but has dropped to 400 km/s as the disturbance is now over. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) increased to a maximum of 13 nT but has now dropped to 7 nT. The North-South component of the magnetic field (Bz) varied between -12 and 11 nT and the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions have now returned to a slow wind regime and are expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1+ to 4- and K BEL 1 to 4) during the last 24 hours. There are expected to drop to unsettled or quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as reported by GOES-18, was below the 10 pfu alert threshold level during the last 24 hours despite the proton event register since yesterday. As the proton event is now waning the flux is likely to drop to nominal levels in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a chance that a new proton event might occur as a result of the increased solar flaring activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 150, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	171 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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