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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 05 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Feb 2024	176	008
06 Feb 2024	178	007
07 Feb 2024	176	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background high C-class flaring and multiple M-class flares. There are eight numbered active regions on the visible solar disc and a small new one has rotated from behind the east limb. The strongest activity was an M2.7 flare with peak time 22:37 UTC on Feb 4th produced by NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta). This is by far the largest and the most active region, responsible for most of the moderate flaring activity. Isolated M-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3575 (beta-gamma-delta), which is the second largest region on the visible disc. NOAA AR 3571 (beta) has shown some increase in magnetic complexity and NOAA AR 3565 (beta-gamma) has shown a tiny increase in number of sunspots. The remaining active regions are relatively simple and have shown little to no signs of development. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days with likely M-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered mildly enhanced conditions, indicative of a connection to a high speed stream emanating from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 342 km/s to 437 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated, reaching a maximum 9.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at mildly elevated levels throughout Feb 6th with an ongoing mild high speed stream and a possible late glancing blow arrival. Return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected for Feb 7th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet over Belgium and globally reached unsettled levels between 21 UTC and midnight on Feb 4th. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout Feb 5th and Feb 6th with small chance for isolated active levels later today in case of a combined effect from an expected glancing blow ICME arrival and the ongoing mild high speed stream.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending any fast eruptive activity related to NOAA AR 3576.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	134 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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