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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 07 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Feb 2024	192	003
08 Feb 2024	189	005
09 Feb 2024	186	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. There are twelve numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. The strongest activity was a long duration M5.2 flare (start time 03:04 UTC, peak time 03:31 UTC, end time 03:49 UTC on Feb 7th) produced by NOAA AR 3575 (beta-gamma-delta), which is now approaching the south-west limb. NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta) increased its magnetic complexity and number of sunspots, but has produced only C-class flaring so far. The remaining active regions are relatively small and simple, and have not produced any notable activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next days with possible further M-class flaring and some chances for X-class flaring as NOAA AR 3575 approaches the west limb.

Корональні викиди маси

A fast full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery starting after 12:00 UTC on Feb 6th. The CME has no clear on-disc signatures and is deemed to be back-sided. No impact on Earth is expected. A large filament eruption in the northern hemisphere resulted in a northward CME launched at around the same time as the back-sided halo CME. The bulk of this filament-related CME is heading north and out of the Sun-Earth line. Yet, due to it’s wide spread and central on-disc location a possible glancing blow could impact Earth late UTC on Feb 8th or early on Feb 9th. Another partial halo CME is observed in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 03:36 UTC on Feb 7th. The CME is related to the M5 flaring from NOAA 3575 near the west limb and has associated coronal dimming and a wide coronal wave. Despite the clear on disc signatures and the width of the eruption, the CME is estimated to miss Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the continuous influence of a high speed stream originating from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 402 and 555 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly elevated with a maximum value of 7.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -4.8 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at mildly elevated levels throughout Feb 7th and start declining towards slow solar wind background on Feb 8th. Two weak glancing blow ICMEs might possibly reach Earth late UTC on Feb 8th and/or early UTC on Feb 9th bringing slightly perturbed solar wind conditions and enhanced solar wind speed.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Feb 8th. Isolated active levels might be reached on Feb 9th related to combined effects from several potential glancing blow ICME arrivals.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has returned to nominal values. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to be below radiation storm levels in the next days, but might experience some enhancements due to possible further strong flaring and related eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3575 and NOAA AR 3575.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 158, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	212
10cm solar flux	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	161 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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