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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 09 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Feb 2024	184	003
10 Feb 2024	184	009
11 Feb 2024	184	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M3.9 flare, peak time 23:55 UTC on Feb 8th, produced by NOAA AR 3575 from behind the west limb. Multiple C-class flaring was also observed from behind the west limb, presumably from NOAA AR 3575 and NOAA AR 3564. The main driver for the solar activity observed on the visible disc was NOAA AR 3576 (beta- gamma-delta), which produced multiple low M-class flaring, including an impulsive M3.4 flare with peak time 13:12 UTC on Feb 8th. Isolated low levels of activity were produced by NOAA AR 3574, which decayed into magnetic configuration type alpha and NOAA AR 3573, which has rotated behind the west limb. Two new simple active regions were numbered, namely NOAA AR 3580 (alpha) near the north-west limb, and NOAA AR 3581 (alpha) near the south-east limb. One or two more returning regions are expected to rotated onto the solar disc from behind the east limb. NOAA AR 3579 (beta) has slightly increased its underlying magnetic complexity, but remained inactive. NOAA AR 3574 (alpha) showed mild decay. The remaining active regions have been mostly stable and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days with likely further M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3576.

Корональні викиди маси

A filament eruption in the southern hemisphere to the west of NOAA AR 3576 produced a medium intensity coronal dimming visible in the SDO/AIA images around 21:00 UTC on Feb 8th. However currently no coronal mass ejection (CME) can be associated with this eruption. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) are returning to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity has followed a declining curve, decreasing from about 500 km/s to about 430 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, was weak with a maximum value of 5.7 nT and minimum Bz of -3.5 nT. The B field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to be at nominal slow solar wind background levels on Feb 9th with minor chances for a rather weak glancing blow ICME arrival. Another low-impact glancing blow arrival related to the Feb 6th filament eruption might slightly enhance the solar wind conditions on Feb 10th and Feb 11th with only minor to no observed impact.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Feb 9th. Isolated active levels might be reached on Feb 10th related to possible glancing blow ICME arrivals and a possible shock arrival from the Feb 6th CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for Feb 11th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of fast and strong eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3576.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 131, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	209
10cm solar flux	185
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	167 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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