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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Feb 2024	175	008
25 Feb 2024	177	016
26 Feb 2024	179	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. Six M-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta). The largest flare was a M4.5-flare, with peak time 06:34 UTC on February 24. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) has been stable and inactive. NOAA AR 3591 (alfa), NOAA AR 3592 (beta) and NOAA AR 3594 (beta) have rotated over the east limb. NOAA AR 3593 (beta) has emerged on the solar disk close to the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

Two negative polarity coronal holes have passed the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun at high latitude and the other in the Southern half at low latitude. A high-speed stream from the southern coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth early on the 25th of February.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 290 km/s to 362 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 2 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods on the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole and the possible glancing blow arrival of a CME from February 21.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (Kp 1-2 and K Bel 1-2). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	134
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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