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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Apr 30 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Apr 2024	132	007
01 May 2024	128	014
02 May 2024	124	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.6-flare, with peak time 01:14 UTC on April 30 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma- delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3652 (alfa) has started to rotate over the west limb. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a chance for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 12:36 UTC on April 29, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 171 and 193 at 07:53 UTC on April 29 associated with NOAA AR 3654. Further analysis is ongoing.

Корональні діри

A long negative polarity coronal hole stretching from high northern latitudes down to the equator continues to pass the central meridian. The high-speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth late on May 1st.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions were enhanced until around 17:45 UTC on April 29 when they started to decline to slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 374 to 505 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 1 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected become elevated with a possible mild high-speed stream arrival on and May 1st.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (K 1-2) and locally reached unsettled conditions (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Apr 2024

Wolf number Catania	138
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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