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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 May 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 May 2024	160	011
05 May 2024	164	013
06 May 2024	168	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels. The largest flare was a M9.1-flare, with peak time 06:19 UTC on May 04 associated with NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest region on disk and together with NOAA AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta) the most magnetically complex regions, which both produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Three yet unnumbered active region have started to emerge on the eastern half of the visible solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 20:48 UTC. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 12:01 UTC on May 02, in LASCO C2 data, associated with NOAA AR 3654 shows that this CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03, associated with NOAA AR 3663 and a X1.7-flare shows a possible arrival late on May 05 or early on May 06.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed gently declined from around 440 km/s to around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -2 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until 18:30 UTC on May 03 when it switched to the positive sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed on late on May 04, due to possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 1-2) and quiet to unsettled locally (K_Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 03 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	155
10cm solar flux	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	152 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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