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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 May 06 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 May 2024	178	021
07 May 2024	178	007
08 May 2024	177	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high levels with several M-class flares and an X-class flare during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES X4.5 flare, which peaked at 06:35 UTC on May 06, from NOAA AR 3663. During the flare, the source region (AR 3663) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Both NOAA AR 3663 and AR 3664 produced several M-class flares over the past 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

At the time of writing no LASCO C2 and C3 data seems to be available from May 04 to 06. A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with an X-class flare from NOAA AR 3663 (peak at 06:35 UTC on May 06) was observed in STEREO-A coronograph images. It is predominantly north directed so it will not arrive at Earth. Other eruptions in EUV images and coronal dimmings are seen on SE quadrant of the Sun around 14:20 UT and 17:20 UT on May 05 which may be possibly associated with CMEs. Further analysis will be carried out once the LASCO images are availble.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of an interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) and high speed streams (HSS). The solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s to 500 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -13 and 14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 6 nT to 17 nT. The enhancement in the solar wind parameters could be possibly initially due to an arrival of a coronal mass ejections (CME), which was observed on May 01, and later due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSS) from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH) which crossed the central meridian on May 03. Possible disturbances in solar wind parameters due to any remnants from HSSs arrives at Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 2 to 5). It increased from quiet to minor storm conditions between 18:00 UT on May 05 and 03:00 UT on May 06. This could be possibly initially due to the arrival of a coronal mass ejections (CME), which was observed on May 01, and later due to the arrival of high speed streams (HSS) from an equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH) which crossed the central meridian on May 03. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours unless HSS from May 03 CH continues to impact at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 188, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 05 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	177
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	168 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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