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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 May 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 May 2024	194	008
20 May 2024	190	006
21 May 2024	185	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3865 (magnetic configuration Beta- Gamma, Catania sunspot group 10) produced almost all the activity. The same AR also emitted the brightest flares, two C4 yesterday at 19:38 and 20:16 UTC. Nevertheless NOAA AR 3685 and 3670 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 6) have increased in magnetic complexity and are both likely to produced M-class flares in the next 24 hours. There is also a chance of X-class flaring, especially from NOAA AR 3685 during the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Сонячний вітер

Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 450 to 360 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 4 and 9 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -8 and 3 nT and the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed away from the Sun in the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the same pattern for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally at unsettled to low levels (NOAA Kp 1+ to 3- and K BEL 2 to 3) during he past 24 hours. They are expected to be predominantly quiet, both globally and locally, during the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was in low levels during the past 24 hours. It is likely that it will remain at low levels in the next 24 hours, however, there is a small chance of a new proton event and an increase in flux above the 10 pfu alert level.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at low levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at those levels for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain to those levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 175, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 18 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	161 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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