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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jun 2024	181	032
11 Jun 2024	178	010
12 Jun 2024	175	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at high levels, with four M-class flares and an X-class flare. The strongest flare was an X1.5 flare associated with NOAA AR 3697 (beta-gamma-delta) peaking at 11:08 UTC on June 10. There are currently ten active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3697 being the most complex one. This active region is currently rotating behind the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

The east-west elongated, negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere continues to reside on the central meridian. No high-speed stream arriving at Earth is expected from this coronal hole. A small, negative polarity, low latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is crossing the central meridian. No high-speed stream arriving at Earth is expected from this coronal hole.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 335 km/s to 470 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -4.7 nT and 3.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on June 08 may be expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL from 0 to 2). Quiet conditions are expected over the next hours, followed by possible minor to moderate geomagnetic storms due to the expected arrival of the CME observed on June 08.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was above the threshold level over the past 24 hours, until approximately 19:50 UTC on June 09 and it continues to decrease. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold level for the next 24 hours, depending on further eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3697.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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