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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jun 2024	172	005
15 Jun 2024	174	003
16 Jun 2024	176	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares. The strongest flares were an M3.2 flare peaking at 16:44 UTC on June 13, associated with NOAA AR 3713 (beta) and an M2.4 flare peaking at 04:32 UTC on June 14, associated with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma). There are currently eight active regions on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3712 (beta-gamma) being the most complex one. NOAA AR 3702 is currently rotating behind the west limb. NOAA ARs 3714 and 3715 have decayed into plage. A new, currently unnumbered AR has emerged in the north-west quadrant, west of NOAA AR 3702. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance of M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) has been detected around 15:24 UTC on June 13 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery. The CME is mostly directed to the west. The CME source region is believed to be behind the west limb and no impact on Earth is expected. Analysis of the faint partial halo CME detected around 23:32 UTC on June 12 in SOHO/LASCO-C2 suggests a potential Earth-directed component. A glancing blow from this CME might arrive at Earth early on June 16. No other Earth- directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

An equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole still resides on the central meridian. The associated high-speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth starting from June 16.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 297 km/s to 375 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field between 3 nT and 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector, changing to negative around 17:00 UTC on June 13 and back to positive around 03:00 UTC on June 14. Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Enhancements in the solar wind may be expected starting from June 16 due to the possible glancing blow and high- speed stream arrivals.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp between 0 and 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at quiet to unsettled levels (K BEL between 0 and 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 160, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	170
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	149 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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