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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Jul 2024	181	008
05 Jul 2024	177	010
06 Jul 2024	173	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded. The largest flare was a C3.29-flare, with peak time 08:08 UTC on July 04 associated with NOAA AR 3729 (beta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk and one yet unnumbered active region emerging near the west limb. NOAA AR 3729 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3733 (beta) were the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3729 (beta- gamma) produced most of the flares in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares likely.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CMEs, seen at 18:24 UTC on July 02 and at 08:36 UTC on July 03, in LASCO C2 data shows that no impact at Earth is expected.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity low latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. The high-speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth late on July 06.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied within 320 – 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 0 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 1-2) and locally quiet to unsettled (K_Bel 1-3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was above the 1000 pfu threshold between 17:50 and 19:10 UTC on July 03 but is expected to remain below the threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 137, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	226
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	184 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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