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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2024	242	008
18 Jul 2024	235	018
19 Jul 2024	230	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with an X1.9 flare emitted by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta) at 16 Jul 13:26 UTC. Five M-class flares were also detected as associated with four AR. NOAA AR 3743 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 93) produced an M5.0 at 17 Jul 06:39 UTC and an M3.4 at 17 Jul 07:08 UTC. NOAA AR 3744 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 96) registered an M1.9 at 16 Jul 22:06 UTC and NOAA AR 3753 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group no 8) is associated with an M1.6 at 16 Jul 21:24 UTC. NOAA AR 3738 produced the more recent M-class flare, an M1.2 at 17 Jul 09:45 UTC. In the next 24 hours M-class flaring activity is expected mostly from NOAA AR 3743, 3738, 3751, or 3753 and there is a chance of an isolated, low- intensity X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in SOHO/LASCO C-2 images as launched at 16/7 13:48 UTC is associated with NOAA active region 3738 and the X1.9 flare of 13:26 UTC, hence not expected to be Earth-directed.

Сонячний вітер

Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 330 and 420 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 15 to 3 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 13 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetism

Global and local geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during the past 24 hours, with short intervals of unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3- and K BEL 3 at 16 Jul 15:00-18:00 UTC and K BEL 3 at 17 Jul 09:00-12:00 UTC). A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause levels to increase to active and possibly minor storm conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 276, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	331
10cm solar flux	242
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	287 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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