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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Aug 06 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Aug 2024	249	013
07 Aug 2024	252	012
08 Aug 2024	251	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the last 24 hours, with 2 X-class flares. The strongest was an X1.7 flare peaking at 13:39 UTC on August 05, which originated from beyond the west solar limb and had an associated Type II radio emission at 13:31 UTC. The second was an X1.1 flare with peak time 15:27 UTC, associated with NOAA AR3780, which also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 15:30 UTC. NOAA AR 3780 is the largest region on disk and was also responsible an M1.2 flare with peak time 18:37 UTC. NOAA AR 3772 and NOAA AR 3774 are also two of the more complex regions on the disk but were stable. NOAA AR 3775 decayed slightly. NOAA AR 3781 in the north-east produced M-class flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), directed to the west, was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 13:48 UTC on August 05. This CME was associated with the X1.7 flare with peak time 13:39 UTC on August 05, which originated from beyond the west solar limb and therefore is not Earth directed. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A small negative polarity coronal hole continues to transit the central meridian since August 05.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions indicated a gradual return to slow solar wind conditions after the CME arrival on August 05. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly stable around 5 nT with a minimum value of -5nT. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 550 km/s to around 420 km/s. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 1-2 and Local K BEL 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours, although a minor increase was observed associated with the X1.7 flare. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours, with a small chance for a further increase associated with any possible further X-class flares from beyond the west limb.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 242, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	247
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	214 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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